“I’ve seen the predictions and the numbers. I am not a mathematics whiz but my gut feeling, for a lack of a better description, tells me we will start seeing a peak in about six to eight weeks,” he told Jacaranda FM host Martin Bester.
“We will probably plateau by September, and we will be over the worst by October and November. We should be going into the new year with a very low rate of transmission. We can’t clear the virus completely in all likelihood.”
Abdool Karim further says that the country will begin to return to normalcy once South Africa is in ‘simmering mode’, in which the rate of infection is relatively low. However, various safety and hygiene measures will still need to be implemented.
“Once it’s in simmering mode, we will be able to take on more of our normal daily life activities, but of course under the new normal in which protection measures are still implemented,” he added.
The country currently has 445 433 confirmed cases, the total number of deaths is 6 769 and the total number of recoveries is 265 077, which translates to a recovery rate of 59,5%.
Speaking to Newsroom 405 on July 26, Health minister Dr. Zweli Mkhize said that the projected numbers for August are of concern. Models predict high numbers for August and September, although patterns will vary according to province. Mkhize says the Western Cape’s numbers are slowly reducing while KwaZulu-Natal’s cases are steadily rising.